ok, so here is my update after trading this system for week 1.
Each trade if it goes as planned, looks like it will return between 20 to 35 points of profit. We are trading binaries and are trading a set value per point. In some of the money-line videos it often mentions about a particular entry being very low risk. That is, trade entry is when the binary/entry is less than 10. Now, of course this means that you will only lose, say, £10 if trading at £1 per point. However, the trades from this strategy are not that frequent, and if each trade is only making between £20-£35, you are absolutely not going to get rich trading this way.
A far more normal type of trading is to risk a set amount, or percentage of the bank on each trade. That is how I trade personally, and is how I am going to test this system – as if I was trading it for real. My bank is starting at £2000 and I will be risking 2% per trade. Sometimes an exact 2% trade is not posible, so I will trade as close to 2% without risking more.
So, onto the summary and results for week 1
Monday – GBPUSD no trade, EURUSD no trade
The “official” results said there was a GU trade however for me, it appears to have broken the rules for entry. Firstly, the rules state that the trades are not to be taken if they have not triggered by “approximately 14:00”. I read that to mean, once it gets to between about 13:50 – 14:00, if the trade has not been placed, then there will be no trade for the day. The rules also state that entry must be “no lower than 3 pips” from the trade entry point. This particular entry was close to the 3 pip boundary, for a brief few seconds and then remained within 5-10 pips for a little while longer.
Now, the trade worked perfectly and would have make a good profit, but I didn’t take it because it broke the entry rules.
The analysis video published the next day says that it would have been perfectly acceptable to break the rules and take the trade. He states that it would “be a punt”. Well, I’m not in this for taking punts, I’m in this for reliable signals by following rules for entry and exit.
I have to say, I am a little suspicious of the analysis videos. They are all recorded after the event, with the benefit of hindsight. The video says “The price is clearly going to reverse.” Huh? Yes, of course it is clearly going to reverse (when you have the chart right in front of you showing you that it did indeed reverse). The analysis videos are therefore not actually that helpful. It would be far better if the analysis was recorded exactly at the point of entry. You can then say “this is what the chart looks like, I am (or am not) taking this trade because of this reason…”
Anyway, no trades for me, official results report one very good GU trade.
Tuesday – GBPUSD no trade, EURUSD no trade
So, unfortunately, the email which contained “the money line” was sent late this morning. The money line is an important piece of data that you use to determine the entry points for the day. Normally the email is sent around 6am-7am, however unfortunately today the email was received too late (10:15). By that time, a trade on the EU had already triggered (around 8am), but obviously I couldn’t take it because I didn’t know what the correct entry point was. I am sure this will probably go down in the official results as a good trade, but, it was impossible to take because I had not received the critical levels of the day. Again, no trades for me.
Wednesday – GBP Profit 1.2% (£24), EURUSD Loss 1.5% (£30)
Interesting day. My alert went off for both trades. By the time I could get into the trading platform however (literally a few minutes later), price had moved away from entry. The GU trade, hung around, so I was able to take the entry around 15 minutes later. The GU trade was closed late afternoon for a small gain. There is a target “window” where you close the trade. Knowing whether to close the trade as soon as it enters that window, or whether to wait and maximise profits is not explained anywhere in the manual and is quite tricky to judge. I waited some time and eventually decided to close it for a small gain as the price was simply not going anywhere.
The EU trade was completely different. The initial trade (that I missed) quickly reversed, so, had I been able to get the trade in place, this would have been a winner within a couple of minutes. Price continued reversing however, and then 15 minutes later a trade in the opposite direction became available. There is nothing in the manual to describe this situation (or to say not to take the trade) and since it matched all the entry criteria, I entered the trade. Alas, it did not work out and I closed it out for a loss.
Thursday – GBPUSD no trade, EURUSD no trade
No trades, nothing happened until late in the day due to FOMC
Friday – GU Loss 1.9% (£37.2), EU Loss 1.5% (£30.2)
EU Entry was literally right on the 8am candle. Unfortunately I missed this as I set up my charts at about 8:15. Fortunately, price did return mid-late morning, so I was able to take the entry at 84.9
GU Entry was virtuately immediate. Entry was at 81.4. Had I waited, within the next couple of hours there were slightly better entries.
However within 15 minutes of taking the EU trade, markets rallied and never returned, so I ended up with 2 losses.
So for week 1, I had 4 trades (1 winner, 3 losers), and the bank is down 3.7% (£73.4).