Late in 2014 I met a chap called John Burke who is a horse racing tipster but had written a General Election 2015 betting guide.
He’d been involved in UK politics for 15 years and claims to have made money betting on British general elections over the last 18 years.
This came as a 15 page guide with full analysis and clear instructions for his 10 main bets and the 5 seats worth staying up for with full predictions.
It was a one off cost of £17 and came as an instant download.
I saw this as a bit of a punt as obviously there was no way to test his advices except for following them and if they turned out to be profitable we could perhaps have another go in four years time.
Anyway, here’s how they got on:
| Bet | Odds | £10 Stakes | £100 Stakes |
| Labour to win Amber Valley | 1.50 | -£10.00 | -£100.00 |
| Labour to win Carlisle | 1.57 | -£10.00 | -£100.00 |
| Labour to win Thurrock | 3.40 | -£10.00 | -£100.00 |
| Labour to win Birmingham Yardley | 2.00 | £10.00 | £100.00 |
| Conservatives to win Southport | 3.50 | -£10.00 | -£100.00 |
| Conservatives to win Portsmouth South | 2.00 | £10.00 | £100.00 |
| UKIP to win 1 or 2 seats only | 3.75 | £27.50 | £275.00 |
| Liberal Democrats to win between 11-20 seats | 5.50 | -£10.00 | -£100.00 |
| Conservative Minority Government | 6.00 | -£10.00 | -£100.00 |
| Conservatives to win Southampton Itchen | 3.50 | £25.00 | £250.00 |
| Conservatives to win Birmingham Northfield | 9.00 | -£10.00 | -£100.00 |
| £2.50 | £25.00 |
So if you had bet to £100 stakes you would have made £25 profit (less the £17 for the cost of the manual), or £2.50 on £10 stakes which would have left you down after costs.
Clearly many people felt the election results were a bit of a shock, considering the polls on the run up, so I guess this did well to scrape a profit but I doubt anyone would have been betting to £100 stakes so I can only assume most people buying this guide would have made an overall loss.
Would I recommend this in four years time?
Well, not as a money spinner, but it did add a bit of fun to the process to I’ll probably do it again.
Neutral seems fair to me.
