A horse racing tipping service from the Value Rater website which targets quality races seeking value. Here’s what the vendor says about it:
A Heavy analysis based service. Race Reader Service is and, always will be, our flagship service here at Value Rater. Run 100% by our CEO and founder, Matt Mitter.
I have been recording the results since 11th April, and the daily analysis is second to none. Matt certainly knows his horses. The service runs from Wednesday to Saturday and arrives by email. There’s a sample of a day’s analysis at the end of this review. Furthermore, Matt also gives a post race analysis at the end of the week’s tips. You couldn’t really ask for a more insightful summary of a targeted race.
There are usually one or two bets per day, and these were all advised at one point win or one point each way. Average price at advised odds was 13.7 (12.47 achieved, 14.94 BSP).
But of course the proof of the pudding is in the eating, so how did it perform?
There were 75 bets in all, 5 non-runners, 6 winners, 15 places and 49 losers.
P/L -12.7 points advised odds, -13.02 achieved odds, -20.15 BSP.
Of 112 points invested, the ROI was -11.34%
These are obviously disappointing results for such a knowledgeable tipster. Losing 12 points over three months is far from disastrous, but it’s not a cheap service and I have no choice but to fail the service over the review period. Having said that, I will miss those daily missives and I have a feeling we haven’t heard the last of Matt Mitter.
Here is a sample of what you get on a race day:
Saturday 30th June
Selections 1.30 Newcastle GRACELAND 1 Point Each Way 22/1, 5 places, 2.05 Newcastle SIR CHAUVELIN 1 Point Each Way 14/1, 5 places
We are up at Newcastle for their big day and the first race we feature is the plate consolation race the Vase at 1.30. A class 2 event over the extended 2 miles with 20 runners and because of that we have 4 places to go at. I will stick to showing my process of elimination and go through the horses I was ultimately shortlisting from.
DANNYDAY is 8/1 for Sir Michael Stoute and he is out quickly after running at Royal Ascot where he was beaten 6 and a quarter lengths. That does not tell the whole story as I think he did not really get home over the 2 miles and he is of interest now coming back in trip. I noticed he has a really high knee action meaning he will probably want cut in the ground but he has got course and distance form in this race 2 years ago off 91 and he now finds himself off 4 pounds higher here. I expect he will run a big race but off 9 stone 8 he is vulnerable to a better handicapped horse. He has proved he has the class for this race but my main concern is that comeback run and is this a little bit too soon.
The favourite is THE GRAND VISIR at 5/1 and I can see why he is favourite for Mr Haggas. This horse is by FRANKEL a sire who when he was racing we all wondered if he would get a mile and a quarter or a mile and a half and he is now producing 2 mile stayers. This one won last time in Class 2 company off a mark of 90 and wears cheek pieces. Now has been raised a further four pounds after beating BYRON FLYER and EUCHEN GLEN who also run in this race. With EUCHEN GLEN I am not sure what happened with the equipment on the horse and it was given a very peculiar ride. We don’t know if THE GRAND VISIR will be suited to an artificial surface because he has not run on one and for that reason alone despite him being an intriguing runner in a competitive race like this at 5/1 I will overlook him.
FINANCIAL CONDUCT is very interesting for David Simcock and is a horse who has just changed ownership to big Arab connections. He was visually impressive when winning at Dundalk in a handicap over a mile and a half. The form of that 3 length win may be nothing spectacular but the manner of his victory was taking. Now with Simcock and big connections they obviously feel they have bought into something good and the million dollar question is will he get the trip. He is a big player if he does but we will need to prove he does. I am sure he has a touch of class and looks like he will be a good bye from that operation.
My selection is going to be the horse who finished runner up in this last year and that is GRACELAND Trained by Michael Bell. I backed him at York when in a Class 3 race over the extended 2 miles he finished fourth and to say he was unlucky was an understatement. He was checked when making a run I don’t know how many times in a race won by WAITING FOR RICHIE with DENMEAD in second. DENMEAD franked the form by winning a lesser event at Kempton over 2 miles. DENMEAD runs here but I don’t particularly like him because even though he is on a competitive mark he is just so slow. I know this is a staying race but when you get into these top handicaps even at these distances you need a turn of foot. I just cannot forget how unlucky GRACELAND was at York and I kept an eye on him when they went to Chelmsford and dropped him back 2 furlongs and I got involved which I perhaps should not have done at the trip. After being slowly away he took fourth inside the final furlong. I am not sure he was fully at it that day and maybe they already had this race in mind and at this trip on a course he has run well at he has to be the selection. He ran second in this to LONDON PRIZE last year and that franked the form finishing a good second in the Cesarawich later on in the season. He finds himself 3 pounds higher 12 months on but on his best form when he puts it all together I believe he is still a well handicapped horse. It is arguable that last years race was a better event than this and because of his run last time and unless you were watching him be so unlucky at York he might not be too obvious to people here. That is why we can get 22/1 about him here and that is with 5 places so shop around and get that if you can.
In a fascinating race and we have mentioned the horse’s I see as main contenders but once I saw the price of GRACELAND it was a no brainer to me and we will go 1 Point Each Way @22/1.
Our second race is the plate itself at 2.05 and it has 20 runners and these races we have looked at today can take many hours to sift through and will feel impossible to look at for many. It is worth it because of the exceptional value we get on the place terms so shop around.Some are even going 6 on this but most Bookmakers are going 5.
The favourite is WITHHOLD for Roger Charlton @9/2 and we have to take his fitness on trust and to work out if he is still well handicapped. He won the Cesarawich off 87 and know finds himself off 99. Not to say he can’t win but this will be a lot harder and I thought 9/2 was plenty short enough and I think you are forced to take him on.
AMAZING RED is interesting here at 7/1 and he also won at Newmarket beating GOLDEN WOLF. He has form on an artificial surface winning at Kempton and he is still unexposed particularly on the All Weather. I think he is on a fair mark to be competitive rather than being thrown in but having said that nothing in here is. It is a tight handicap and difficult to get in at all. AMAZING RED has an obvious chance and on the surface looks like the one you want to be with each way here. The trip should pose no issues and remember this is an extended 2 miles and half a furlong on a very stiff track and for me the horse was priced accordingly.
LAGOS TO VEGAS is 8/1 for Mullins comes here after winning at Royal Ascot and coming back so soon after such a big race does concern me. That in itself is enough to put me off and the race was run over 2 and a half miles. She gets a five pound penalty but the race must have taken plenty out of her and Willie Mullins put loads of runners into that Ascot race. When Trainers do that it always makes me think they are not quite sure and are throwing a few darts at the board. She did it well but for me is worth taking on today.
TIME TO STUDY is interesting at 20/1 for Mark Johnstone and the horse is now dropping in class into handicap company after trying his hand in group 3 and Listed races. On the surface it looked like he had gone a little bit but it might be he was out of his depth and in his career he has only won Class 2 races. He gets in here off a big weight but stays well and is more interesting for me off a 20/1 mark as some horses are better off in handicaps giving weight to inferior types than going into better class company. He screams to me that he might be one of them. I will not be backing him because of his profile is regressive but it will be interesting to see if this is easier for him.
A standing dish who has been around for ever is WATERSMEET also for Mark Johnstone and is 25/1 and was disappointing to be ninth at Chester in a race which also featured TIME TO STUDY. That was the Chester Cup over 2 miles and 2 and a half furlongs and WATERSMEET was beaten 13 and a half lengths. I did not think he stayed that day and the hope is he will come back to his form at 2 miles on Good Friday at Lingfield when he was third to FUNNY KID in a really strong event. LORD GEORGE was in second who also runs in this race at 22/1 and you have to have him on your mind after that run though it was a strange tactical race that day in that they did not go very quick and WATERSMEET was trying to do it with a burst of speed. LORD GEORGE has plenty of form on the All Weather and he wears the visor and I have always had him down as a bit of a ducker but this is the sort of race to back him as you can go each way and get a lot of concessions. I do think he is an each way bet but he has let me down before and I tend to avoid them after especially if I feel like they have avoided the issue like he has they tend to continue to let you down.
I generally like to see horses who have done it at the trip but there is one horse here that I was really taken with at Ascot and yes it is a quick turn around but I have to get involved today to find out. The horse is SIR CHAUVELIN at 14/1 for Jim Goldie who has won here and has not won over a mile yet but he is by AUTHOURISED and that horses progeny are staying these trips. I was really taken by his run at Royal Ascot in this class of 97 and he runs off the same mark here. He went down 2 and a quarter lengths to DASH OF SPICE but if you look back at the race he had a troubled run. He stayed on strongly in a race like that and in a really fast time. The point is the others were not coming back to him on the going yet he was motoring down the outside and we are going to go 1 Point Each Way at 14/1 and look for those 5 places. Very unexposed on this surface and already has winning form at the track and though the quick turnaround is not ideal there was so much I liked about that performance and I would rather back him than not back him to find out.
An interesting race as you would expect but we are going 1 Point Each Way SIR CHAUVELIN @14/1.