Final Review

I am going to take the unusual step of stopping this trial just after two weeks, because I have several issues:

The average odds of this service are such that it is vital that you keep the strike rate up. To do that you cannot afford to miss any recommended bets. I have received emails after I have retired for the night for games kicking off at 1-30 am the next day. To be fair, I retire early and it is entirely possible that most people would get these bets, but it is also possible that a few would miss them.

Looking back at the “proofed” data I found these two entries for 2 Jan: Crystal Palace vs Leicester City and Hibernian vs Hearts. Both with advised stakes of 2.5 points (according to the “proofed” data) but both shown as 5 point wins.

24 Jan Notts Co v Preston was reported as a loss of 13.5 points for odds of 14.5, but the stake was 1.5 points, so this was a loss of 20.25.

1 Mar the Sao Caetano v Oeste is reported as stake 5 but a points win of 1.5, I suspect that the advised stake is incorrect and should have been 1.5.

25 March Espanyol v Malaga is reported as a 1 point win but the stake is recorded as 1.5 points. This is not a problem as the advised stake for this game was 1 point.

Consequently I get 7% fewer points (150.75) than the “proofed” points total (162.5) as reported on the website. OK, typos happen, still …

However, my concern does not stop there! The proofed results show a 1 point win for a 1 point stake, but this does not allow for commission. Reducing wins by 5%, so a 1 point win returns 0.95 points, my points total is reduced to 129.3, a whopping 20% reduction.

Third issue, is the strike rate from the 240 bets January through March is 91.7% (220 winners, 20 losers). For long-term success you need odds of  less than 100/(100-91.7), as this is how you convert strike rates to odds. This is odds of 12, but the average odds are 13. So there has to be a doubt over the long-term viability of this service.

To make matters worse, I have not been able to match the advised odds. I am usually 1 to 2 points higher. Adding just 1 point to the advised odds (taking 11 instead of 10 for example) reduces the points total to 42.8! Now, the way around this is to leave an order for the advised odds as the odds will reduce as the game progresses, but you are vulnerable to an early goal.

My final issue is one of liquidity. This is not something I have checked, but as the Correct Score market does not attract vast amount of money I suspect that some of the more exotic games, e.g.  Pachuca v Tijuana (Mexico, KO 3:10AM), you’d remain unmatched or matched for very little stakes; always assuming that Betfair covered this match. Unfortunately, because some advice is received after I go to bed, I cannot confirm that all the advised bets are actually available on Betfair. As odds are attached to the advice I assume they are.

For the reasons noted above I cannot approve this service, nor am I going to be able too even if I run this blog for another 2 months. That is why I see little point in continuing the trial and I am stopping now. Is this a fail then? Well, if my analysis about the long-term viability is correct then yes, it is, but I am aware that even my adjusted point totals show a profit for the first three months of this year. Having said that, the points totals assume you receive the advice at a time where you can place the bet and said bet is actually matched. Failure to get only a few bets placed or matched would see your profits evaporate. But a profit is a profit so I will go neutral, with deep reservations.

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