You could be forgiven for being a little confused by the results given on the website. It’s showing average monthly profit at £2338 and overall profit since April of £18,708. Now, as betting profits are tax free, this kind of income is exactly what I’m after (it’s no coincidence that there are many services where, when you glance at the results, it seems all you have to do is sign up and that’ll be your main source of income).
The subscription fee of £39.50 per month or £89.50 per quarter seems very reasonable in consideration of those returns.
This trial began on October 3rd. The first thing I noticed (and a particular bugbear) was that all stakes are advised at 5 points. Why? If it’s because they are selective and given with plenty of confidence, then make 1 point 10% of a bigger bank. Personally, £20 per bet is my comfort zone, though for the purposes of reviews I would consider £10 per bet as the norm. If I’m advised to stake 5 points per bet, do I bet 5x£10=£50, or do I divide my stake by 5 so now I’m betting at £2 per point? Well, I would do the latter because, obviously, I like to stay within my comfort zone. So really I can’t see any reason to advise staking 5 points per bet other than to artificially boost profits. I think these agencies should realise that the betting public are savvy and they’re not fooling anyone by this ruse.
Rant not quite over!
So for November, on their website, they are showing a £1580 profit, whilst I’m showing a half point loss (would be two and a half at 5 points!). Now, checking my results against the official results (admirably calculated to Betfair SP less 5%) I find that two runners from the 1st of the month are omitted, although as one of these won and wouldn’t have made much difference to the results, I’m sure this was simply a mistake. So profit was 16.158 points and loss was 13 points, making 3.158 point profit for the month. Multiply that by their 5 point stake you get 15.79 points profit. That would mean betting £500 on every bet. Somewhat out of my £20 comfort zone! And betting to SP you would have made a loss.
A bit more rant…
The author states on his website: “The reason why I am so selective is because unlike probably most tipsters I do actually have decent bets on my selections using just a 30 point bank which is very safe. I have looked at other tipsters websites and they advise a 100 point bank and give up to 10 or more selections in any one day so the average person these days can only bet in small stakes which is a waste of time particularly if you want to make a worthwhile profit !!”
Now I don’t know about you, but I would think a 30 point bank which he describes as “very safe” is quite a risk – especially when you’re betting 5 points per bet. He also states that his longest losing run is 10 bets. Now correct me if I’m wrong, but a losing run of 10 bets = minus 50 points, and bank blown. And indeed, as I finish the trial on -13 points (-65 points at 5 point stakes), the bank is, indeed, blown.
One more ranty bit…
The author often talks about the importance of following a notebook horse. We backed a horse called Coiste Bodhar at Southwell in October where it lost, and again at Southwell in November, where it lost. We didn’t back it in December at Southwell, where it won at 8.0. I think some reasoning should perhaps have been given for that in his daily blog.
Anyway, I’m done with the rants now. I do think this tipster knows his stuff and his daily blog makes plenty of sense. In order to receive the bets, you have to sign in online and as this is overwritten on a daily basis, it’s impossible to go back and check anything more than a day old, so a daily email would be preferable. But the tips are well reasoned and if you stick to level staking and a proper bank (I suggest 100 points to level stakes) the downturns haven’t been too bad.
In 3 months there have been 73 bets, mostly straight win, some each way. To SP the results are as follows:
3 non runners
Strike rate 32% (including placed horses)
Average odds 5.72
p/l to level stakes -13.38 points
Obviously with a busted bank this can’t be anything other than a fail. However, I would say that a different approach to the staking and bank size could turn this around. The author claims “My full time occupation is spent constantly looking for very well handicapped horses which have gone under the radar of the stewards”, he has been doing this for 20 years and it would be wrong to dismiss him out of hand.
We trialled this service for three months from October 3rd to show what it can do. If you want to jump on board you can do so through this link.