This is an update and a final write up of the Simplex Trading System that I introduced to you back at the start of October and has just closed out it’s last remaining bets for this season.
A quick recap of the idea behind the system. You have to start this system at the start of the football season and the idea is to place the same bet on each team for every league game that takes place. If the bet wins you reset the stake to the minimum and if the bet loses you double your stake and move on to the next fixture for that team. You repeat this pattern of betting, resetting after a win and doubling after a loss, until December. Once a team closes out a betting cycle after this point you stop betting on them and wait until all teams have finished their cycles before taking your profit.We all know that this type of staking can be very expensive indeed if a lengthy run of losers come along. The book instructs you to start each teams betting cycle at 10p and to keep doubling up until your bet wins. For the duration of the test I have recorded winnings at a sensible average price for this type of bet and have entered them into the supplied spreadsheet.
Now to my findings. The spreadsheet starts off with a betting bank of £1000 and updates the balance for you once you have entered the stakes placed and the profit gained. You can, for an extra payment, have the exact stakes required emailed to you before each set of fixtures.As stated above I used an average price to settle each winning bet (slightly the generous side of average) and have found that the final betting bank has grown by almost £3500. I have to admit that I was surprised at how much profit was generated by the system but it has to be weighed against the amount of money staked to achieve this very decent level of profit.
The system chugged along quite nicely for the majority of the time it was in use and was doing fairly well profit-wise until the inevitable losing run of bets hit one team just as it was time to start closing down teams cycles. The original 10p bet doubled all the way up to a scary final bet of over £1600 won. The systems authors claim that this is the point that you really make money at, and there is some truth to that claim but the betting bank was down to a very low level after that stake was placed and had the bet been rolled over once more the bank would have been wiped out and more funds required to close out this last teams cycle. That unfortunately is the problem with all such “Martingale” type betting systems. They are certain to produce a profit in the long run, it’s just a case of getting there.The big problem I had was that the lengthy losing run came right at the end of most other teams betting cycles, so no new money was coming in from other winning bets.
I think it best to give this system a neutral rating. It does work as described in the book and it will give a profit when all teams close out their cycles, so it would not be fair to place it in the failed list. However, I certainly will not be using it in the future as it requires you to place large bets that you are 99.9% certain are going to lose just incase they come off.
The bottom line is that it will turn a profit eventually, but it is way too scary a ride for me to give it the thumbs up. I think Neutral is a fair rating.
You can get the Simplex Trading System here: