Liam Moroney here again with a mini review of the Simplex Trading System. I will give a brief intro to the system and will then monitor it until the end of the season before giving a verdict. The reason for this approach is that I have only just received this and have now got up to speed on results so far. The system authors say that it is vital that you use this from the start of the season, not part way through. Worryingly, I cannot see this mentioned on the sales page or in the FAQ provided. Another niggle is that the system has nothing to do with trading as the normal punter would understand the term.
Anyway, on to what it is. The system works by placing the same stipulated bet on each and every premiership team. Starting at 10p per team you place the bet, take the profit after a winner and double the stake after a loser. We all know that this type of staking is total suicide if it goes on for long and another worry here is that there is no recommended starting bank given in the ebook. The claim is made that last year the biggest bank required was £183. In the normal way of things we would expect any system to advise you to have a starting bank capable of withstanding a hefty losing run, but that is not mentioned. Even though the starting bet is only 10p a sustained losing run on any one team would quickly lead to some major stakes being placed. This is somewhat glossed over in the ebook by claiming that this is the point at which you really cash in with a large win. True, but you have to have survived the losing run and still have the stake money to do this. There is a screen shot in the ebook showing a large win that was achieved, but it also shows that over £1600 was staked. Remember that the sequence started at 10p and doubled up all the way to this figure. Granted, there are other sequences starting and finishing every week and as a sequence finishes you have a small amount of profit each time. The book does advise that you should cease betting on any teams that achieve the stipulated result during December, or the next time they achieve it after this time. Their research shows that this is the safest policy and I will abide by that and will post my findings when the last team has come to the end of it sequence.
I know I have made this sound quite negative but the lack of advice on starting bank has got me worried. If you double up 10p throughout a season you are going to be staking thousands. Granted it is unlikely that such a losing run would occur, but it is possible and therefore should be allowed for before starting. After 6 games for most teams the system is around £86 down, this would be easily recoverable if a couple of the teams close out their sequence soon.
It’s not all negatives and I will report figures at the end of the test (probably January or February) but I would advise against purchasing this system until next season and only then if it is profitable.