No selections yesterday but three today, unfortunately. Based on the results on the Stable Lays site, this is the first time this year that there have been three consecutive losing bets.
RESULTS: Sat 08 Dec
Prices at BSP
12.00 Aint Buthelezi £10 @ 5.00 = -£40.00 LOSS
12.55 Sand Kentford Grey Lady £10 @ 6.13 = -£51.30 LOSS
14.45 Aint Bear’s Affair £10 @ 4.53 = -£35.30 LOSS
Daily P/L: -£126.60
Current P/L: -£85.80
Current bank: £414.20
Prices taken in the live market, just before the off
12.00 Aint Buthelezi £10 @ 5.40 = -£44.00 LOSS
12.55 Sand Kentford Grey Lady £10 @ 6.40 = -£54.00 LOSS
14.45 Aint Bear’s Affair £10 @ 4.70 = -£37.00 LOSS
Daily P/L: -£135.00
Current P/L: £95.50
Current bank: £404.50
Hi,
The system rules state that the max lay price is 6.0 so the 12.55 race will not count.
I think a few days ago you included a selection at 7.0 which lost, so it shouldnt be included either.
Gordon
Hi Gordon
12.55 Sandown Kentford Grey Lady: BSP was 6.13, but Industry SP was 9/2.
The rules state “If the official SP of the horse drifts to 5/1 (6.00) or higher then we VOID this selection as the exposure is too high.” My understanding is that “official SP” is the same as industry SP and not the same as Betfair SP. Also, based on that quote, the highest industry SP should be 9/2. However, I actually use this system and lay to liability and I am more comfortable with 5/1 as a maximum.
I take the official SP from Sporting Life’s “Live Shows” page as these prices are live and I regard this as the most reliable site.
When blogging a system consistency is more important than following rules to the letter. I have been using maximum industry SP of 5/1 since before I started this trial and I shall continue to do so. I have set a maximum BSP of 7.00 as that is 5/1 plus Betfair’s claimed 20% better odds converted to decimal odds.
I hope this helps.
Hi Michael,
I appreciate what your saying and that consistency is important. For folk thinking on buying a product based upon a completed review it would be beneficial for the review to follow the system rules, as this will reflect results obtained by folk who use it themselves and the product website results.
I bought stable lays and the daily e-mails from the system producers state 6.0 is the max to lay at. The website results also reflect this. Below is a copy of daily email.
Dear Stable Lays Subscriber,
Please find attatched the lays for the above date:
12:00 Aintree – Buthelezi (Forecast 5/2. 24 Points)
12:55 Sandown – Kentford Grey Lady (Forecast 3/1. 27 Points)
1:10 Lingfield – Novel Dancer (Forecast 3/1. 24 Points)
2:45 Aintree – Bear’s Affair (Forecast 11/4. 23 Points)
Remember to check for any points changes which can be caused by Non-Runners and/or Jockey Changes before the off.
The maximum lay odds is 5/1 (6.00). If the SP is higher than this then the selection becomes void.
Best Wishes,
Harry Lewis
Stable Lays
Gordon
If you open the Stable Lays results spreadsheet (http://www.stablelays.co.uk/results.html, if you need to download it), then go to the Betfair results pages http://form.timeform.betfair.com/daypage, you will find all results, including of course Harry’s selections. Results are recorded at Industry SP (SP) and at Betfair SP (BSP). Randomly select any result from the spreadsheet, go to the appropriate results page, make a comparison and you will find that Harry records results at Industry SP, not at BSP.
Comments have been made elsewhere about this practice as only a bookmaker can replicate odds at SP, which are typically lower than BSP. I cannot record prices at SP as I cannot achieve them and the prices I use are based on bets made. I stated in my introduction that “As it is becoming the norm for recording results, I shall be using BSP.” To the best of my knowledge, Harry does not state the maximum BSP, but if you use 6.00 BSP then typically SP will be lower than this. It is entirely up to you what you choose as a maximum as long as you are consistent, but I shall continue using the same conventions that I have been.
Addendum: To the end of November Stable Lays have recorded just six lays at odds of 6.00. None of them won, please note the prices at BSP. They are: 14/02/2012 14.10 Southwell Darsan at Industry SP 6.00 BSP 8.40; 10/04/2012 17.55 Pontefract Georgebernardshaw SP 6.00 BSP 7.08; 23/08/2012 15.05 York Anderiego SP 6.00 BSP 6.81; 11 Oct 15.40 Fieldgunner Kirkup SP 6.00 BSP 6.53; 31/10/2012 13.00 Lingfield Illustrious Lad SP 6.00 BSP 6.40; 02/11/2012 15.10 Wetherby Eyre Apparent SP 6.00 BSP 7.46.
Stable Lays have also recorded results at 5.5 that have a BSP in excess of 6.00.
Hi,
Thanks for reply I’d forgotten about the system using SP rather than BSP.
Gordon