Wipeout!

I haven’t been able to use the bot since Friday as I have been away and unable to leave my computer on during the day however I have had a couple of e-mails from people that were using the bot with the greyhound system yesterday and they hit their stop losses after a run of losing bets. Looking back through the results and I would certainly have hit my stop had I been running the system which would have wiped out my profits for this test.

This is frustrating after such a promising start but I think with any system like this we would need to see how it would work over the long term. Before starting the test I looked back over a years worth of results and the longest losing run was three and that was only once. Apparantly yesterday there was a losing run of four and no winning run of three to recover so everyone using the system with the same settings as me would have hit their stop.

Does this mean the system is useless? It’s difficult to say. It would really depend how often the stop loss gets hit. If the stop gets hit once a month then this would definately not make a profit. If we get a wipeout every three months then we would definately still profit although one would have to wonder if it’s worth the effort.

A sensible money management stratergy would be to have a betting bank of, say, £1000. Divide that into four separate banks of £250 and use one for the greyhound system. So with a stop of £250 you would have to aim for £2.50 a race for two or three races a day so lets say we aim to win £5 a day over two races. After a month, assuming no stops are hit, we would make about £150. If we re-invest that and raise the stop to £400 and aim for £8 a day then by the end of the second month we would have made £390 profit, so as long as the stop doesn’t get hit for two months we would be fine and we could take the profit and start again with a £250 stop knowing that if we hit it we would still be up, or we could take half the winnings each day and up the stop accordingly on a daily basis which would compound the growth more quickly. Using only a quarter of the betting bank as a stop would mean that if we do have a wipeout, we have another three lots of £250 to start it again.

But the question remains, how often is the stop likely to get hit? If it’s more than once every two months then it wouldn’t be profitable. I’deally you only want to be hitting your stop once or twice a year at the most to make it worthwhile and having hit the stop after a couple of weeks of trialling one has to wonder if it’s worth the risk.

I had a lucky escape yesterday with my profits intact and since I’ve been wanting to try the bot with some other selection systems I think I may knock the greyhound system on the head and see how we get on with using it with the horses. I’m back home tonight so will be able to run the bot again tomorrow. I have a system that lays horses but it requires betting just before the off if the prices of the selection and it’s competitors are within a certain range so would be an ideal candidate for using with the bot. It’s level staking too so it’ll be interesting to see if it’s profitable.