I’ll start by giving an overview of the results:
Winning Bets 14
Losing Bets 4
Strike rate 78%
Winning Bets 30
Losing Bets 5
Strike rate 86%
I started the trial with a betting bank of £100 and finished with £204 (less Betfair commission) so I effectively doubled my bank in two months.
January was a bit odd because I was using one of the selection criteria slightly incorrectly which gave us less bets and therefore it’s not possible to know the actual results using it correctly so I carried the test on another month and interestingly all the profit was made then. The staking plan of aiming for 8% of your bank per race and re-calculating after every £50 increase in the bank seems to work well so if the results carry on like this then I can see it being an effective system.
I am biased against laying systems because although you get a constant stream of winning bets, the liabilities on the losing bets wipe out much of the work done to build your bank. You need to be very hard nosed to be able to take the losses without feeling gutted but if looked from a long term perspective then I think overall this system does deliver if it continues as it did during the trial.
The advantage of this system is that the bets can be placed in the morning so people that cannot bet during the day due to work commitments etc. can still use this system without a problem.
One of the criteria of the system is that the selection must not be priced at over 9/1 (10.0 on Betfair). Now since the prices you can obtain on Betfair change throughout the day then results will be slightly different from user to user, depending on what prices are available. Some selections may not qualify for a bet in the morning but may later in the day, or vice versa, and the losses on losing bets will vary for the same reason.
I personally do not like laying horses over around 5-1. Iris’s Prince cost a whopping £69 after I layed it at 9.6 for £8 and Gustavo cost £67 after laying at 6.6 for £12.
Now, looking back over the stats, if we didn’t bet on anything over 5/1 (6.0) then we would have missed 21 bets which would be £168 profit at £8 a lay but we wouldn’t have had the losers either which cost £114 at £8 a lay. Even so that’s still a profit of £54, or half the bank, so restricting the price would not have yielded the returns we got. We could play around with the stats some more to see what maximum price would have yielded the best returns but to be fair, to do this effectively we need at least six months results.
On the plus side this system is very easy to use. It took me about five to ten minutes to identify selections for the day and place my bets. The manual is well written and easy to understand and includes the usual explanations of Betfair for people that are new to it.
All in all I would say that based on the recent trial, this system is a worthwhile addition to your betting portfolio. It doubled the betting bank despite some high priced losing bets and it’s very quick and easy to use. I wouldn’t rely on it to pay the mortgage but used sensibly it could provide a useful extra betting income.
I won’t go over the top about it because it doesn’t fulfil the criteria which to me makes for an ideal laying system… that being low priced lays, preferably favourites, and because of that I can’t really get excited about this system. However, it has shown that it makes a profit and it does it with very little effort on behalf of the user and for these reasons alone I will move this system to my approved systems list.