Friday’s poor results (I think /hope others may have fared better than I did) brought home that there is one thing about this system that I’ve never been totally comfortable with: laying to 10% of the starting bank, with a liability up to three times that. For instance, if the bank is £500 and the lay is £50 then the liability at 4.00 is £150. As there are sometimes three, four or even five selections in one race it could happen (and the probability theorists would state that eventually it will) that three selections would all place, leaving an enormous hole in the bank.
There were only four selections yesterday and none qualified. Slightly more today, but only two for the evening racing: the first didn’t qualify on price and it’s very unlikely the other will.
Given the sound logic on which I believe the system is based there is probably only a small percentage chance of that happening. However, that doesn’t mean that it won’t happen, only that it is likely to be a very rare event. Rare or not, with the bank down to just over 80% I will reduce stakes to £20 until it has recovered, and I’m hoping that won’t take too long. Once recovered I might have a rethink on the staking.