FINAL REVIEW
I have been recording results since September 7th. My starting bank was £400. This is smallest bank using 1% recommendations, so an each way bet is £2 win/place, and £4 for a win bet. I reset the bank on a daily basis, and place my bets at Betfair SP. Any selection priced at 5.0+ at the time of placing the bet is a win and place bet UNLESS there are fewer than 8 declared runners, in which case it’s a win only bet. If the bank falls below £400, the stakes remain at £2 win/place and £4 win because £2 is the minimum stake on Betfair (there are ways round this but I’m sticking with the minimum).
I have placed 977 bets since September 7th and the bank stands at -£177.46, so around 44 points down. Taking a view over the whole of 2018 to the end of November, the results show a profit of 224 points to BSP, and over 360 points if taking early prices at bookies. That won’t be much consolation for anybody who joined in mid June or after, putting in over 1800 bets and currently sitting on a 55+ points deficit. To be fair, this is a long-term proposition, and there’s more to the service than just the Shortlist, such as how to build your own systems, and compile your own odds. Looking at the graph since my review began, though, this doesn’t look compelling.
Having said that, there is a marked discrepancy between my results and official results. One of the reasons for this is that I have used a ratchet staking system (which is advised) whereas the official results show flat staking. If you look at the graph below, the blue line represents BOG bookie results for a profit of 118 points (to 30/11) and the red line shows a profit to BSP of 21 points. My own BSP results show a loss of 22 points in the same period. Whether this discrepancy is wholly down to the different staking, or one or other of us has made any incorrect results inputting I’m not sure, but I’m not prepared to go back and check through over 900 results! But starting from the first day of the review, 7th September, a horse called Kaeso came 3rd in the 3.50 at Ascot. With one non runner, this became a no place return from bookies but is marked down as a break even result on official results. There were 7 runners in the race but 3rd place would have counted for a place return to BSP, but not to ISP. I’m certain this was not a deliberate error but it does count toward the discrepancy.
All that said, worst case scenario is my ratchet BSP results. In most cases, if a system is successful, ratcheting would be the best way of profiting from it. My own preference is, you start with a bank and a percentage of the bank, below which you don’t go. So if I am using a £1000 bank and have 1% bets, then the minimum would be £10, even if the bank fell below the starting balance. Best case scenario is BOG bookies taking the early prices. The large difference between these two outcomes is something that would definitely put me off, and I wouldn’t subscribe to this myself, as somebody who has been banned by most bookies. I do know that on other blogs, this operator is popular and has many plaudits, and I certainly think he has the right approach to betting. As such, I am marking this review as neutral.
Have a look at this video showing Michaels profit from horse racing over three months on Betfair:
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