Final review

I have been following this system for three months, so it’s time for my final review. During this time, Cash Master owner Graham and I went to visit Trends Experts proprietor David Leslie for a chat, and you can see the resultant vlog here:

I was interested in this system particularly because it is different from almost all other methodologies in looking for winners of horse races by using trends, rather than simply form. Form is a part of trends, but it looks at winners of previous runnings of the same races and what it takes to win, such as age range, number of previous runs, sex, etc. There is no simple database to deliver all this information, so it needs to be done manually, and each race takes many hours to compile. It then looks at the relative chances of each runner according to the trends results, the prices currently available, and recommends the varied number of points to outlay for each selection in the race. Races targeted are usually the big races on Saturdays and the major festivals.

During my review period, I had ongoing discussions with David because I did have some concerns about how the method could be misinterpreted, such as if and when to back each way and whether to cover forecasts, tricasts and cross-multiples. All of these concerns have been addressed, and I am now satisfied that I can recommend the service but, as you will see, the recommendation is stronger for those who are able to take recommended prices. That’s not to say I don’t think it can make a profit at BSP, the three month testing period didn’t throw up the big priced winners to show what this can do, but it certainly has the potential to do so.

So during the testing period, I started by backing the horses priced at 21.0+ at half stakes win and place, but during the test when the manual was changed and updated, I went to win only. The difference in results in the period is not significant.

Official results are a combination of early bookie prices and Betfair prices, depending on how big the odds are. Over a double figure threshold, it’s advised to place bets on Betfair. My own results are all Betfair starting prices (BSP) and industry starting prices (ISP). Additionally, I recorded forecasts and tricasts, cross multiples and straight one point place wins, which is nowhere advised but I wanted to see how it performed (actually better than the BSP and ISP advised points results).

One of the niggles I had was the suggestion that, in addition to the win bets, the system has many times thrown up forecasts, tricasts and cross multiples. The highlight of this was the tricast success in the Cesarewitch, which made a massive 3972.6 profit. The problem with this, though, is that the outlay required is often enormous, and so sometimes we’ve laid out 720 points in a ten selection race, and the tricast has failed. And in spite of that Ces win, the tricast ended up at over 600 points loss. Of course, you wouldn’t expect to invest as much per point on a tricast as you would on the win bets, but even if you were going 10% stake that would still be more than 60 points loss. At one stage, they did try to get over this by highlighting the most likely horses to be in the mix and therefore leaving some out for lower staking – and this came unstuck at the first hurdle when one of the non-highlighted selections, Rock The Kasbah, won its race at Cheltenham. I don’t blame them for highlighting the fact that they’ve found the forecast or tricast, but it’s still not right to avoid pointing out the full facts of such an investment. For example, in the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow, the results were reported as Welsh Grand National: Winner at 11/2 advised along with the 2nd at 10/1 (for a £36.30 forecast) and 5th place at 25/1. Actually, the forecast lost over 10 points because a 42 point outlay was required, and the forecast actually paid £32.07 (the £36.30 reported was in fact the Exacta – more about this below).

So, here are the final results for you to mull over.

2018 advised prices* +349.27 points

*Some of these have taken better prices after the event on BSP. This means that this result needs to be treated with some caution. After my conversations with David, this is now all good and results will be reported according to advice in the manual.

Review period 6/10/18-5/1/19

No. races 29

No. races with winner 15

Advised prices -47.65 points

*See above comment which is applicable for most of this period

BSP -58.44 points

ISP -101.61 points

BSP place only single stake (not advised, my addition) -17.51 points

Forecasts -142.42 points

Tricasts -601.4 points

Exacta +55 points

Trifecta -1627.3 points

Cross Multiples (half point each way) -958.6 points

So in my stats, the Exacta performed best, with the place only single stakes coming second. One thing I have learnt from this exercise is it’s better to invest in the Exacta than the SF, though the Tricast was better than the Trifecta. However, for this system I certainly wouldn’t invest in the Tricast at all because, in spite of that magnificent Cesarewitch result, the outlay is too great for the reward (unless I was having a wee gamble instead of an investment). And even though the Exacta won, I think the potential losing days aren’t really worth the investment, but this needs to be monitored, I could be wrong!

So – I lost in the review period but I’m passing this service. It should be acknowledged that some of these major races do throw up big priced winners which are often found by the trends, and it was unfortunate that this didn’t happen so much in the review period. I have enjoyed watching the races, and it certainly gives confidence as the races pan out. The strike rate is excellent, and if you are able to take early bookie prices, I would recommend going with those. Ironically, it seems the smaller the race in terms of runners, the harder it seems for the system to find the winner. Where it really excels is in the unfathomable races.

I will heartily endorse this great service for those with access to bookie accounts. And for those like me who need to rely on the exchanges, I certainly wouldn’t put you off, because although I lost over the review period, it clearly has great potential over the longer term. If you sign up, you may well establish your own version of how to play it. I definitely wouldn’t advise a different staking structure, a lot of work has gone into this to maximise returns. But maybe I wouldn’t play when the system only throws up one or two selections, as it did on Saturday. I wouldn’t do the cross multiples, if you do these and then pick and choose some and not others, you’ll come unstuck for sure. I would also not play the tricasts, except maybe if there’s a really big race I may have a few quid, but you have to expect to lose it. I would consider playing the Exacta, again, if selections look as though they may throw something up, and the outlay isn’t too massive. I would consider place only bets in some form – maybe above a certain price.

With the official results showing a 47 point loss in the review period, but the service enjoying a near 350 point gain over the year as a whole, even adjusted to account for the results anomalies mentioned earlier, this looks worthy of consideration.

You can sign up to Trends Experts here.

UPDATE January 2020

Well, as is often the way with tipping services, despite previous excellent form this service completely lost the plot and proceeded to deliver months upon months of losses, eventually throwing in the towel and shutting down.