G’day all, thank you for the comments on my last update for this service concerning the month of August points totals and why my results differed from those of UK Racing Lays.
After checking my detailed results against those in the UK Racing Lays spreadsheet, my first conclusion is that we are both right. But in saying that, there are many discrepancies between the two, nearly 100% of the Betfair Starting Prices are different, also where UKRL have not placed bets on a particular race due to the maximum odds rule, my bot has taken the bet under the maximum odds of 8. At this point in time and until I treble check and check again I can only assume that their bets and my bets are placed at different times before the race starts. As we know in the last seconds before the race the odds fluctuate massively and my time setting seems to favour my results, which could have also been the other way. I have detailed some of the results and comparisons below:
My Bot: BetBotPro
Time Bets Placed: 5 Seconds (before race start)
Set To Place Bets At Betfair Starting Price
Maximum Odds: 8
Minimum Number Runners: 6
I have not altered these settings since the trial started on the 20/07/13, each evening (Australia Time) when I receive the selections I input them into the bot and every morning I transfer the information from the bot onto the spreadsheet.
02/08 – 1455 Thirsk – Tunnel Tiger – my BSP 6.6 / UKRL BSP 6.78
08/08 – 1650 Brighton – Pour La Victorire – my BSP 4.6 / UKRL BSP 4.87
11/08 – 1710 Windsor – Certavi – my BSP 4.6 / UKRL BSP 5
13/08 – 1600 Worecester – From the Top – my BSP 6 / UKRL BSP 6.34
17/08 – 1505 Doncaster – Mukhabarat – my BSP 4.4 / UKRL BSP 4.99
19/08 – 1430 Thirsk – Bountiful Forest – my BSP 4.5 / UKRL BSP 5.19
26/08 – 1400 Epsom – Signposted – my BSP 4.4 / UKRL BSP 4.57
The above are examples and common for all our lost (horses won) races.
Maximum Odds Rule
There were a number of races that UKRL did not place bets because of the maximum odds rule, but my bot did place these bets at odds under the maximum of 8, I did check in the results search section of the Sportinglife website and confirmed that the Starting Price (not BSP) was under 8 at the start of the race and can only assume at 5 seconds before the race the BSP odds were under 8, as the bot placed the bets.
05/08 – 1530 Wolverhampton – Centrality – UKRL No Bet, Bot placed bet at BSP 7.2, SP showed 7
14/08 – 1450 Salisbury – Finn Class – UKRL No Bet, Bot placed bet at BSP 7.8, SP showed 7.5
14/08 – 1705 Yarmouth – Epic Voyage – UKRL No Bet, Bot placed bet at BSP 7.2, SP showed 7
15/08 – 1555 Salisbury – Highland Knight – UKRL No Bet, Bot placed bet at BSP 7, SP showed 7
27/08 – 1505 Ripon – We’ll Shake Hands – UKRL No Bet, Bot placed bet at BSP 7, SP showed 6.5
Each one of the above won (horses lost) and after Betfair commission added 0.95 points each to my spreadsheet total.
Minimum Runners Rule & Non Runners
There was 3 times that UKRL did not place bets because of the minimum number of runners rule and my bot did place these bets, when I checked Sportinglife website results it shown these horses were WD (Withdrawn). I can only assume these were WD late and the bot had already placed bets or did not realize the change.
As I mentioned at the start I feel UKRL and myself are both right and I can only assume we are getting our information at different times and also using different methods to get that information, I did not notice any figures incorrectly inputted in either spreadsheet and our selections are the same.
At this point in time I can’t see why any of us need to change our results sheet. As we all know we may have the same selections but it doesn’t mean that the bottom line will be the same.
Also, I had a different starting bank at the beginning of August because the trial started on the 20/07/13 and I could only show my results for the 11 days which was a decrease in my bank size different to UKRL who showed their results for the full month. I did mention this in my first update on 03/08/13.
I have decided to keep the results as they are and continue with the trial. It will be interesting to see what September brings.